What the market
actually looks like.

For the first time since 2019, active listings are climbing in nearly every major metro. NAR's March 2025 report shows a 22% year-over-year increase in available inventory — and that number is even higher in Sun Belt markets like Phoenix (+31%), Tampa (+28%), and Austin (+39%).

What does that mean for you? More choices, more negotiating power, and — critically — fewer bidding wars. In February, only 24% of homes sold above list price, compared to 64% at the peak of 2022.

The 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.4% as of late April, down from the 7.8% peak in October 2023. That's not low by pre-pandemic standards — but it's meaningfully better.

Here's the math that matters: at 7.8%, a $400k loan costs $2,861/month (P&I). At 6.4%, that same loan is $2,499/month — a $362 difference, or $4,344/year back in your pocket.

Zillow's rate forecast expects a slow drift toward 6.0% by Q4 2025, but nobody is calling for a dramatic drop. Waiting for 5% rates may mean waiting until 2027 or beyond.

NAR's 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers shows first-time buyers now account for 32% of all purchases — up from 26% last year. It's the largest single-year jump since 2021, driven by expanded down payment assistance programs and stabilizing prices in secondary markets.

The median age of a first-time buyer is now 38 — the highest ever recorded. The dream didn't die. It just took longer than expected.

If your finances are in order, you're staying 5+ years, and you're buying in a market with growing inventory — yes, the window is more favorable than it's been since 2020. This isn't a call to rush. It's a call to stop assuming next year will be better by default.

Markets with the most buyer-friendly conditions right now: Austin TX, Jacksonville FL, Memphis TN, Indianapolis IN, and Raleigh NC. We'll be doing deep dives on each over the next few weeks.